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“Divorce is always good news. I know that sounds weird, but it’s true because no good marriage has ever ended in divorce. That would be sad. If two people were married and they just had a great thing … and then they got divorced, that would be really sad. But that has happened zero times.”

-Louis C.K.

This inevitably leads to the question: what is a “good” marriage? Likely, the answer is there are no good or bad marriages. Instead there are a range of risk factors associated with divorce. When two people get married, they usually aren’t thinking that the marriage will end in divorce. But then hard times arise and sometimes they find themselves thinking either casually or seriously about divorce. Is there a way to know if your marriage is statistically likely to end in divorce? Below, we will take a look at some of the most common risk factors in the United States.

Current state of divorce

In the United States, researchers estimate that 40 to 50 percent of all first marriages will end in divorce or permanent separation. The risk of divorce is even higher for second marriages at about 60 percent. Divorce has always been present in American society although it has become more common in the last 50 years. Surprisingly, the highest divorce rates ever recorded were in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Since then the divorce rate has actually decreased a little but still remains at a historically high rate.

Researchers have found that individuals considering divorce make their decision to stay or leave based on the rewards they gain from the marriage, the barriers against leaving the marriage, their perceptions about finding a better relationship, and the amount of investment they have made in their marriage.

Barriers to leaving a marriage, such as concerns about money and the effects of family breakup on their children, can keep marriages together in the short term. However, unless there is improvement in the relationship, eventually the barriers are usually not enough to keep a marriage together in the long run.

What factors are associated with a higher risk for divorce?

The statistics which show that almost half of all marriages end in divorce might make it seem like staying married has the same odds as roulette – namely 50/50. However, research has identified various factors that are associated with a higher risk for divorce. Some couples may have a low risk and others might have a higher risk of divorcing. Understanding these factors may not directly help improve your marriage or make a decision about getting divorced, but they may help couples understand why they’re facing challenges. Researchers have identified the most common factors as:

• Young Age. Marrying at a young age increases your likelihood of divorce, especially in the early years of marriage. People who married in their teens are at dramatically higher risk for divorce than those who married as early as age 21 or 22.
• Less education. Researchers estimate that individuals who have some college education as opposed to not finishing high school have a lower chance of divorce. Investing in an education is a good way to build a foundation for a better marriage, not just a better job.
• Less income. Tied to education is income. Research has estimated that individuals with incomes exceeding $50,000 have a lower chance of divorce. Finances can be stressful and having at least a modest income can help couples avoid stresses that can lead to divorce. If you argue with your spouse about finances once a week, your marriage is 30 percent more likely to end in divorce than if you argue less frequently about finances.
• Premarital childbearing and pregnancy. In America, more than one-third (37%) of children are born to parents who are not married, and few of these parents eventually marry. Most of those parents will separate before the child begins school, some will never really get together.
• If you have a daughter, you’re 5% more likely to divorce. This figure multiplies with the number of daughters. Researchers believe that this happens because fathers are more invested in family life when they have boys.
• If you or your partner have had a previous marriage. Data shows that second (or third or fourth) marriages should be more successful than first marriages. However, this statistic is skewed by serial marriages and researchers have been unable to take the Elizabeth Taylors out of the equation.
• Parents’ divorce. Of course, some risk factors for divorce you can’t control. If you experienced the divorce of your parents, unfortunately, that doubles your risk for divorce. If your spouse witnessed their parents’ divorce, then your risk more than triples. This does not doom your marriage to failure but rather suggests that individuals who experienced the divorce of their parents need to work harder to make good marriage choices and to keep their marriage strong and happy.
• Same-sex marriages are more likely to end in divorce. Although the LGBT community is just starting to have legally recognized marriages in the United States, a research team led by Stockholm University on legal partnerships in Norway and Sweden found that male same-sex marriages are 50 percent more likely to end in divorce than a heterosexual marriage. If you’re a female in a same-sex marriage, this figure soars to 167 percent.

These are only a few risk factors that researchers have identified and none of them represent automatic doom for a marriage. However, if a number of these and other risk factors are present, seeking pre-marital or other counseling may be recommended, even if nothing seems wrong at the moment. Much like roulette, one can increase the odds in their favor by learning more about marriage, themselves and their partners.

If divorce seems inevitable, it is also recommended that couples take time to try to fix the relationship through counseling or some other professional service before making the decision to call it quits. However, we understand that sometimes there are no alternatives besides divorce.

If you are considering divorce or have questions about divorce planning, please contact our California Certified Family Law Specialists (as certified by the State Bar of California Board of Legal Specialization). Our attorneys have decades of experience handling complex family law proceedings and offer a free consultation.

Please remember that each individual situation is unique and results discussed in this post are not a guarantee of future results.  While this post may detail general legal issues, it is not legal advice.  Use of this site does not create an attorney-client relationship.